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Time Series Analysis Part 1: Regression with a Twist

Time Series Analysis Part 1: Regression with a Twist

We’re surrounded by time series. It’s one of the more common plots we see in day-to-day life. Finance and economics are full of them – stock prices, GDP over time, and 401K value over time to name a few. The plot looks deceptively simple; just a nice univariate squiggle. No crazy vectors, no surfaces, just one predictor – time. It turns out time is a tricky and fickle explanatory variable, which makes analysis of time series a bit more nuanced than first glance. This nuance is obscured by the ease of automatic implementation of time series modeling in languages like R1 As nice as this is for practitioners, the mathematics behind this analysis is lost. Ignoring the mathematics can lead to improper use of these tools. This series will examine some of the mathematics behind stationarity and what is known as ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling. Part 1 will examine the very basics, showing that time series modeling is really just regression with a twist.

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